"You Will Explode In A Couple Of Minutes"

With the recent event involving Iranian speedboats threatening US Naval ships, it would be good to understand the Iranian naval strategy. Fariborz Haghshenass, for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, put out a piece on Iran's Doctrine of Asymmetric Naval Warfare.

Iran Meets Pakistan Over IPI Pipeline Project

This story links back to the previous post here. Now we get to see how Pakistan plays into all this.

clipped from www.hindu.com Islamabad, (PTI): Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, on Friday met his Pakistani counterpart Inam-ul Haque and both the leaders reviewed progress in the multi-billion dollar gas pipeline project, in which India is the third party. The two foreign ministers reviewed progress in talks about the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, officials said. Recently, Iran and Pakistan held talks in Tehran, without India's participation, to finalise crucial agreements for the project. Mottaki also met President Musharraf who called for expediting work on the gas pipeline project. Musharraf, during meeting with Mottaki, backed Iran's efforts to make peaceful use of atomic energy and opposed the use of force to resolve the issue of its nuclear programme.

The Hindus are moving into Iran

India is to invest billions to develop Iranian oil fields while Pakistan votes on who gets murdered next. Strange times. Sorry, my cynical side is showing.

clipped from sify.com ONGC and Hinduja Group may invest $10 billion for developing oil and gas fields in Iran. R.S. Sharma, ONGC Chairman and Managing Director, told newspersons here today that, “the development of South Pars gas field Phase-12 and Azadegan oil field will cost $5 billion each.” The Azadegan oil field may hold reserves of as much as 40 billion barrels, he said. “Our first round of discussions has been very positive. We are proceeding cautiously but steadily. The areas have huge potential,” he added In fact, Hindujas have evinced interest in picking up a majority stake in the refinery project. ONGC’s subsidiary Mangalore Refinery is to hold 26 per cent stake in Kakinada Refinery Petrochemicals Ltd, the company set up to implement the refinery project. IL&FS is to hold 51 per cent stake and the balance is expected to with an Andhra Pradesh Government-appointed agency.

Playing Games with Iran

I came across this when doing some research in game theory. Andreas Blume at the University of Pittsburgh gives an example, through game theory, of what courses of action the US could take with respect to Iran.
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Iran and the West
Iran seeks to go forward with work on uranium enrichment.
The US and Europe are worried that having a uranium enrichment facility will eventually enable Iran to build a nuclear bomb.
A coarse description of their respective strategic options might be as follows:
1. The West can ignore the problem, engage in diplomacy, or act militarily.
2. Iran can give up their nuclear ambition, slowly develop its enrichment capabilities, or opt for rapid development.

Some thoughts about payoffs for the West-Iran Game:

1.We will choose to model the conflict as a zero-sum game. A note of caution: This deliberately ignores that there are numerous dimensions of common interest between Iran and the West.
2. It suffices to keep track of the payoff of only one of players (we’ll choose the West); the other player’s payoffs are the same, except with the opposite sign.
3. If Iran decides to give up its nuclear ambition, then ignoring what they do is a valid option for the West, which will be indicated by a positive payoff, 5, for the West. Recall that Iran’s payoff in this case must be −5.
4. Ignoring Iran’s ambitions is less attractive if Iran chooses slow, indicated by a negative payoff, -2, for the West.
5. The worst outcome for the West is to ignore the problem when Iran proceeds rapidly, indicated by a payoff of -6.
6. The best outcome for the West with diplomacy would be if Iran gave up its ambition. The worst outcome in this case would be if Iran kept slowly developing its enrichment capabilities. In the case that Iran proceeded
rapidly, it would then be possible to convince others, e.g. Russia and China, that diplomacy has been exhausted.
7. Military action, in the game we will set up, is the preferred option only in the event that Iran proceeds rapidly.

Payoff Matrix for West-Iran Game

Iran
Give Up __Slow __Rapid

_____________________________Ignore______ 5__ _-2____-6
__________________West __ Diplomacy _____4 ____-1 ____1
_______________________________Act _____-5 ____-4 ____2

Game III-2

Consider the West’s decision problem first:

Unlike before, assume that the West is afraid that Iran will always discover its strategy choice and that, knowing the West’s strategy, Iran will always try to hold the West’s payoff as low as possible.

One may ask: What is the best strategy against an omniscient opponent who is trying to minimize one’s payoff?

1. Against an omniscient adversary with diametrically opposed interests, the West’s payoff from ignore is -6.
2. Against an omniscient adversary with diametrically opposed interests, the West’s payoff from diplomacy is -1.
3. Against an omniscient adversary with diametrically opposed interests, the West’s payoff from act is -5.

4. In this scenario there is an unambiguously best strategy for the West: Diplomacy.

Observe that the payoff of −1 is the highest payoff that the West can guarantee for itself in this game.

The West secures at least the payoff -1 by adopting the strategy diplomacy.

Assume that Iran is equally afraid that the West will have advance knowledge of Iran’s strategy and will limit Iran’s payoff as much as possible.

We can think of Iran as trying to minimize the West’s payoff. Thus, in our payoff matrix, Iran aims for low values.

One may ask: What is the best strategy for Iran against an omniscient West who is trying to limit Iran’s payoff as much as possible?

In this world, Iran will try to minimize the maximum payoff that the West can achieve against any of Iran’s strategies.

-The West’s highest payoff against Iran’s strategy give up is 5.

-The West’s highest payoff against Iran’s strategy slow is -1.

-The West’s highest payoff against Iran’s strategy rapid is 2.

Recall our assumption that Iran’s goal is to minimize the maximum payoff the West can achieve against Iran’s strategy.

This goal is achieved by adopting the strategy slow.

Iran’s strategy slow guarantees that the West can achieve no higher payoff than -1.

Observe that both the West and Iran can guarantee the payoff -1 in this game.

The West can guarantee that its payoff will be at least -1.

Iran can guarantee that the West’s payoff is no higher than -1.

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It appears as though Diplomacy is the best course of action.

Source: http://www.pitt.edu/~ablume/Game%20Theory%20Principles/game-slides-3.pdf

Iranian Media

Here is an 9 min compilation of Iranian media clips pulled together by MEMRI.

Retired Air Force Colonel Says Intel Operations Are Occuring in Iran

Former CIA Operative says US poised to strike Iran

Here is an article coming from Australian news services which has Bob Baer, a former CIA operative, stating that things are going to get hairy between the US and Iran.

The Iranian View on Star Wars

Iran likes Star Wars! No, I'm not talking about the missile defense system, but the film with Anakin and Padme (....and Jar Jar Binks?). After the release of Star Wars Episode III, many Americans found the story line to be analogous to the current Bush administration. This discourse in itself is nothing short of old. Surprisingly, though, is this line of thought hasn't solely been in the realm of American rhetoric but also in the Iranian media -- Ok, it's not that surprising. This translated video is an Iranian commentary on Lucas' latest space opera.

Source: MEMRI