Ibn Khaldun Didn't Predict the Future...Did He?

One of the most brilliant thinkers of the Islamic world, and in all of history for that matter, is Ibn Khaldun. The man was an historian, philosopher, sociologist, and political theorist. One of his most famous works is the Muqaddimah (known as Prolegomenon in Latin). The selection below is one of the more well known pieces and talks about the natural ages of the state. This concept was a precursor to the idea of cyclical nature of history and society.
--------------------
....And the ages of the state, too, may differ according to astronomical conjunctures. Nevertheless, generally speaking, it is rare that the age of the state should exceed three generations, a generation being the average age of an individual, that is forty years or the time necessary for full growth and development....

We said that the age of the state rarely exceeds three generations because the first generation still retains its nomadic roughness and savagery, and such nomadic characteristics as a hard life, courage, predatoriness, and the desire to share glory. All this means that the strength of the solidarity uniting the people is still firm, which makes that people feared and powerful and able to dominate others.

The second generation, however, have already passed from the nomadic to the sedentary way of life, owing to the power they wield and the luxury they enjoy. They have abandoned their rough life for an easy and luxurious one. Instead of all sharing in the power and glory of the state, one wields it alone, the rest being too indolent to claim their part. Instead of aggressiveness and the desire for conquest we see in them contentment with what they have. All this relaxes the ties of solidarity, to a certain extent, and humility and submissiveness begin to appear in them; yet they still retain much of their pristine spirit because of what they have seen and remembered of the previous generation, with its self-confidence, pursuit of glory, and power to defend and protect itself. They cannot entirely give up all these characteristics, even though they have abandoned some of them.

They still hope to regain the conditions prevailing in the previous generation, or even have the illusion that these virtues are still to be found in them.

As for the third generation, they have completely forgotten the nomadic and rough stage, as though it had never existed. They have also lost their love of power and their social solidarity through having been accustomed to being ruled. Luxury corrupts them, because of the pleasant and easy way of living in which they have been brought up. As a result, they become a liability on the state, like women and children who need to be protected. Solidarity is completely relaxed and the arts of defending oneself and of attacking the enemy are forgotten.

They deceive people by their insignia, dress, horse-riding and culture; yet all the while they are more cowardly than women. If then a claimant or aggressor appear, they are incapable of pushing him back. Consequently, the head of the state is compelled to rely on others for defence, making extensive use of clients and mercenaries, who may to some extent replace the original free warriors....
--------------------
I think one can draw an analogy to the 'first generation' being the generation that survived the Great Depression and WWII ("The Greatest Generation"); the 'second generation' being those who grew up in the 60s and 70s ("Baby Boomers"); and finally the 'third generation' being those who grew up in the 80s and late 90s ("Generation x").

Many people have questioned whether today the citizens of the US are becoming too apathetic and allowing for their resolve to expire too easily. The US already relies heavily on private armys, such as Blackwater, to fight in Iraq. This seems as it is going as Ibn Khaldun had predicted. Lets hope he is wrong, for our sake.

Source: http://www.muslimphilosophy.com/ik/Muqaddimah/Chapter3/Ch_3_12.htm