Autumn Leaves

My preferred season, autumn, has just begun! With the temperature just right and the overall feeling more relaxed, I thought I'd post a clip to introduce the new season. Who better to do that then the "Chairman of the Board"?

For those of you interested in why the leaves turn color, here is the short science behind it.

Geography of Personality

The Wall Street Journal recently put out an article focusing on a study found in the journal Perspectives on Psychological Science(pdf). The study, using 60,000 questionnaires, mapped the U.S. based on personality traits (extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness). Then the study overlays data about crime, poverty, and heath to see if there are any correlations. The findings are interesting. But as a psychologist in the article points out, this might only "reinforce stereotypes and tempt us to draw overly simplistic conclusions[,]" going on to say "we tend to reject information that doesn't agree with our stereotypes." Draw your own conclusions...

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Have you ever wondered which countries have the most corrupt governments? Or which countries have the highest CO2 emissions? Or most liters of beer consumed? All this and whole plethora of other stats can be found at NationMaster.com. It is a collection of user made graphs based off numerical data found from various sources, mainly the CIA Factbook. Though the site looks pretty straight foward, I would caution those who look at these statistics to keep a critical eye on the sources of the data. Remember:

A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions.
~M.J. Moroney

Eye of the Beholder

On the internet, there is a plethora of scenic photography ranging from European cites, African savannas, to South American rainforests. I thought I'd would scrounge the "inter-tubes" and show what I think are some of the most visual stunning pics.


More to come in the future

Mapping Patterns

The BBC recently put out a TV program that collected the GPS data of various networks to show the workings of telecommunications, maritime trade, and vehicular movement across London.

Being Critical

Logical errors are, I think, of greater practical importance than many people believe; they enable their perpetrators to hold the comfortable opinion on every subject in turn.

~Bertrand Russell

One of the more confusing concepts found in logic is deductive/inductive reasoning.

A good deductive argument is one whose premises being true would mean the conclusion must be true. For example:

Premise A: All birds can fly
Premise B: Penguins can't fly
Conclusion: Penguins are not birds.

The above argument is considered a valid deductive argument because if the premises were true, the conclusion must be true. But obviously the Premise A isn't true, penguins are considered birds. Nonetheless the deductive logic itself is still valid.

Here is a different example:

Premise A: Cats are mammals
Premise B: All mammals are warm blooded.
Conclusion: Cats are warm blooded.

The example above is a sound deductive argument because it is valid AND its premises ARE all true.

Now, an inductive argument supports rather than proves. In other words, if the premises of a strong inductive argument are true, the conclusion probably is true.

Example of a strong, inductive argument...

Premise A: There are 10 women in the room
Premise B: 9 of those women are brunette
Conclusion: Most likely all the women are brunette.

If Premise B had a lower sample number , the argument would become weaker. But what about this example?

Premise A: Most lights in the sky are UFOs.
Premise B: There are many lights in the sky.
Conclusion: The next light to be seen is probably a UFO.

Now, even though this is a strong inductive argument, premise A is not true. Thus, it is not considered a cogent inductive argument. I cogent inductive argument is a strong argument with the premises being true. So the Brunette Example previously would be considered a cogent inductive argument.

Lasers, Geography, and Radiohead

When I tell people about LiDAR their eyes glaze over and they begin drooling on themselves. Most of them don't grasp the concept of using lasers to geographically map out an area. But, then I tell them how the popular British band, Radiohead, used it to produce a music video. Afterward, I walk away without looking like a drip.

Return of the Fly

Well, I thought it's time to come back to posting on the blog. I've been busy the last couple of months moving and getting my life in order. I hope to bring some interesting things in the next couple of posts, so be patient!

And Survey Says....

Foreign Policy Magazine has teamed up with the Center for a New American Security and surveyed 3,400 active and retired officers in the US military (link). One of the questions was "What are the two most important things the US government must do to win the war on terror?" 73% of those who responded said "Improve Intelligence." Albeit that statistic is significantly high, it should be at 100%. It is because the US military is so powerful against conventional armies is why terror and insurgency groups rely on asymmetrical warfare. The US can not engage the these groups head-on, for they will only be worn down by numerous hit-and-run attacks . When the US has the ability to outsmart those groups will the tables be turned and that only comes from having a good, actionable intelligence.

Capitals

A short clip from the people at GOOD Magazine covering the meanings of various capitals found around the world.